Last data update: May 06, 2024. (Total: 46732 publications since 2009)
Records 1-30 (of 744 Records) |
Query Trace: Davis C[original query] |
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SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding and rapid antigen test performance - Respiratory Virus Transmission Network, November 2022-May 2023
Smith-Jeffcoat SE , Mellis AM , Grijalva CG , Talbot HK , Schmitz J , Lutrick K , Ellingson KD , Stockwell MS , McLaren SH , Nguyen HQ , Rao S , Asturias EJ , Davis-Gardner ME , Suthar MS , Kirking HL . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024 73 (16) 365-371 As population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 evolves and new variants emerge, the role and accuracy of antigen tests remain active questions. To describe recent test performance, the detection of SARS-CoV-2 by antigen testing was compared with that by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and viral culture testing during November 2022-May 2023. Participants who were enrolled in a household transmission study completed daily symptom diaries and collected two nasal swabs (tested for SARS-CoV-2 via RT-PCR, culture, and antigen tests) each day for 10 days after enrollment. Among participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection, the percentages of positive antigen, RT-PCR, and culture results were calculated each day from the onset of symptoms or, in asymptomatic persons, from the date of the first positive test result. Antigen test sensitivity was calculated using RT-PCR and viral culture as references. The peak percentage of positive antigen (59.0%) and RT-PCR (83.0%) results occurred 3 days after onset, and the peak percentage of positive culture results (52%) occurred 2 days after onset. The sensitivity of antigen tests was 47% (95% CI = 44%-50%) and 80% (95% CI = 76%-85%) using RT-PCR and culture, respectively, as references. Clinicians should be aware of the lower sensitivity of antigen testing compared with RT-PCR, which might lead to false-negative results. This finding has implications for timely initiation of SARS-CoV-2 antiviral treatment, when early diagnosis is essential; clinicians should consider RT-PCR for persons for whom antiviral treatment is recommended. Persons in the community who are at high risk for severe COVID-19 illness and eligible for antiviral treatment should seek testing from health care providers with the goal of obtaining a more sensitive diagnostic test than antigen tests (i.e., an RT-PCR test). |
Travel surveillance uncovers dengue virus dynamics and introductions in the Caribbean
Taylor-Salmon E , Hill V , Paul LM , Koch RT , Breban MI , Chaguza C , Sodeinde A , Warren JL , Bunch S , Cano N , Cone M , Eysoldt S , Garcia A , Gilles N , Hagy A , Heberlein L , Jaber R , Kassens E , Colarusso P , Davis A , Baudin S , Rico E , Mejía-Echeverri Á , Scott B , Stanek D , Zimler R , Muñoz-Jordán JL , Santiago GA , Adams LE , Paz-Bailey G , Spillane M , Katebi V , Paulino-Ramírez R , Mueses S , Peguero A , Sánchez N , Norman FF , Galán JC , Huits R , Hamer DH , Vogels CBF , Morrison A , Michael SF , Grubaugh ND . Nat Commun 2024 15 (1) 3508 Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease in humans, and cases are continuing to rise globally. In particular, islands in the Caribbean have experienced more frequent outbreaks, and all four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes have been reported in the region, leading to hyperendemicity and increased rates of severe disease. However, there is significant variability regarding virus surveillance and reporting between islands, making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the epidemiological patterns in the Caribbean. To investigate this, we used travel surveillance and genomic epidemiology to reconstruct outbreak dynamics, DENV serotype turnover, and patterns of spread within the region from 2009-2022. We uncovered two recent DENV-3 introductions from Asia, one of which resulted in a large outbreak in Cuba, which was previously under-reported. We also show that while outbreaks can be synchronized between islands, they are often caused by different serotypes. Our study highlights the importance of surveillance of infected travelers to provide a snapshot of local introductions and transmission in areas with limited local surveillance and suggests that the recent DENV-3 introductions may pose a major public health threat in the region. |
Acute cardiac events in hospitalized older adults with respiratory syncytial virus infection
Woodruff RC , Melgar M , Pham H , Sperling LS , Loustalot F , Kirley PD , Austin E , Yousey-Hindes K , Openo KP , Ryan P , Brown C , Lynfield R , Davis SS , Barney G , Tesini B , Sutton M , Talbot HK , Zahid H , Kim L , Havers FP . JAMA Intern Med 2024 IMPORTANCE: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection can cause severe respiratory illness in older adults. Less is known about the cardiac complications of RSV disease compared with those of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 infection. OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence and severity of acute cardiac events during hospitalizations among adults aged 50 years or older with RSV infection. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional study analyzed surveillance data from the RSV Hospitalization Surveillance Network, which conducts detailed medical record abstraction among hospitalized patients with RSV infection detected through clinician-directed laboratory testing. Cases of RSV infection in adults aged 50 years or older within 12 states over 5 RSV seasons (annually from 2014-2015 through 2017-2018 and 2022-2023) were examined to estimate the weighted period prevalence and 95% CIs of acute cardiac events. EXPOSURES: Acute cardiac events, identified by International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification or International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification discharge codes, and discharge summary review. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Severe disease outcomes, including intensive care unit (ICU) admission, receipt of invasive mechanical ventilation, or in-hospital death. Adjusted risk ratios (ARR) were calculated to compare severe outcomes among patients with and without acute cardiac events. RESULTS: The study included 6248 hospitalized adults (median [IQR] age, 72.7 [63.0-82.3] years; 59.6% female; 56.4% with underlying cardiovascular disease) with laboratory-confirmed RSV infection. The weighted estimated prevalence of experiencing a cardiac event was 22.4% (95% CI, 21.0%-23.7%). The weighted estimated prevalence was 15.8% (95% CI, 14.6%-17.0%) for acute heart failure, 7.5% (95% CI, 6.8%-8.3%) for acute ischemic heart disease, 1.3% (95% CI, 1.0%-1.7%) for hypertensive crisis, 1.1% (95% CI, 0.8%-1.4%) for ventricular tachycardia, and 0.6% (95% CI, 0.4%-0.8%) for cardiogenic shock. Adults with underlying cardiovascular disease had a greater risk of experiencing an acute cardiac event relative to those who did not (33.0% vs 8.5%; ARR, 3.51; 95% CI, 2.85-4.32). Among all hospitalized adults with RSV infection, 18.6% required ICU admission and 4.9% died during hospitalization. Compared with patients without an acute cardiac event, those who experienced an acute cardiac event had a greater risk of ICU admission (25.8% vs 16.5%; ARR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.23-1.93) and in-hospital death (8.1% vs 4.0%; ARR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.36-2.31). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cross-sectional study over 5 RSV seasons, nearly one-quarter of hospitalized adults aged 50 years or older with RSV infection experienced an acute cardiac event (most frequently acute heart failure), including 1 in 12 adults (8.5%) with no documented underlying cardiovascular disease. The risk of severe outcomes was nearly twice as high in patients with acute cardiac events compared with patients who did not experience an acute cardiac event. These findings clarify the baseline epidemiology of potential cardiac complications of RSV infection prior to RSV vaccine availability. |
Immunogenicity of quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine among Alaska Native children aged 9-14 years at 5 years after vaccination
Davis BM , Blake I , Panicker G , Meites E , Thompson G , Geis J , Bruden D , Fischer M , Singleton R , Unger ER , Markowitz LE , Bruce MG . Vaccine 2024 BACKGROUND: Persistent human papillomavirus (HPV) infection can cause anogenital and oropharyngeal cancers. Many HPV infections and HPV-associated cancers are vaccine-preventable. Studies suggest long-term persistence of vaccine-induced antibodies. However, data are limited among Alaska Native people. METHODS: During 2011-2014, we enrolled Alaska Native children aged 9-14 years who received a 3-dose series of quadrivalent HPV vaccine (4vHPV). We collected sera at 1 month and 1, 2, 3, and 5 years post-vaccination to evaluate trends in type-specific immunoglobulin G antibody concentrations for the 4vHPV types (HPV 6/11/16/18). RESULTS: All participants (N = 469) had detectable antibodies against all 4vHPV types at all timepoints post-vaccination. For all 4vHPV types, antibody levels peaked by 1 month post-vaccination and gradually declined in subsequent years. At 5 years post-vaccination, antibody levels were higher among children who received 4vHPV at a younger age. CONCLUSIONS: Alaska Native children maintained antibodies against all 4vHPV types at 5 years post-vaccination. |
Pathogenesis and transmission assessment of three swine-origin influenza A(H3N2) viruses with zoonotic risk to humans isolated in the U.S from 2017-2020
Sun X , Belser JA , Pulit-Penaloza JA , Brock N , Pappas C , Zanders N , Jang Y , Jones J , Tumpey TM , Davis CT , Maines TR . J Infect Dis 2024 229 (4) 1107-1111 The sporadic occurrence of human infections with swine-origin influenza A(H3N2) viruses and the continual emergence of novel A(H3N2) viruses in swine herds underscore the necessity for ongoing assessment of the pandemic risk posed by these viruses. Here, we selected 3 recent novel swine-origin A(H3N2) viruses isolated between 2017 to 2020, bearing hemagglutinins from the 1990.1, 2010.1, or 2010.2 clades, and evaluated their ability to cause disease and transmit in a ferret model. We conclude that despite considerable genetic variances, all 3 contemporary swine-origin A(H3N2) viruses displayed a capacity for robust replication in the ferret respiratory tract and were also capable of limited airborne transmission. These findings highlight the continued public health risk of swine-origin A(H3N2) strains, especially in human populations with low cross-reactive immunity. |
Use of a district health information system 2 routine immunization dashboard for immunization program monitoring and decision making, Kano State, Nigeria
Tchoualeu DD , Elmousaad HE , Osadebe LU , Adegoke OJ , Nnadi C , Haladu SA , Jacenko SM , Davis LB , Bloland PB , Sandhu HS . Pan Afr Med J 12/28/2021 40 2 INTRODUCTION: a district health information system 2 tool with a customized routine immunization (RI) module and indicator dashboard was introduced in Kano State, Nigeria, in November 2014 to improve data management and analysis of RI services. We assessed the use of the module for program monitoring and decision-making, as well as the enabling factors and barriers to data collection and use. METHODS: a mixed-methods approach was used to assess user experience with the RI data module and dashboard, including 1) a semi-structured survey questionnaire administered at 60 health facilities administering vaccinations and 2) focus group discussions and 16 in-depth interviews conducted with immunization program staff members at the local government area (LGA) and state levels. RESULTS: in health facilities, a RI monitoring chart was used to review progress toward meeting vaccination coverage targets. At the LGA, staff members used RI dashboard data to prioritize health facilities for additional support. At the State level, immunization program staff members use RI data to make policy decisions. They viewed the provision of real-time data through the RI dashboard as a "game changer". Use of immunization data is facilitated through review meetings and supportive supervision visits. Barriers to data use among LGA staff members included inadequate understanding of the data collection tools and computer illiteracy. CONCLUSION: the routine immunization data dashboard facilitated access to and use of data for decision-making at the LGA, State and national levels, however, use at the health facility level remains limited. Ongoing data review meetings and training on computer skills and data collection tools are recommended. |
Modernizing CDC's Practices and Culture for Better Data Sharing, Impact, and Transparency
Wiltz JL , Lee B , Kaufmann R , Carney TJ , Davis K , Briss PA . Prev Chronic Dis 2024 21 E18 |
Reduction of malaria case incidence following the introduction of clothianidin-based indoor residual spraying in previously unsprayed districts: an observational analysis using health facility register data from Côte d'Ivoire, 2018-2022
Hilton ER , Gning-Cisse N , Assi A , Eyakou M , Koffi J , Gnakou B , Kouassi B , Flatley C , Chabi J , Gbalegba C , Alex Aimain S , Yah Kokrasset C , Antoine Tanoh M , N'Gotta S , Yao O , Egou Assi H , Konan P , Davis K , Constant E , Belemvire A , Yepassis-Zembrou P , Zinzindohoue P , Kouadio B , Burnett S . BMJ Glob Health 2024 9 (3) BACKGROUND: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) using neonicotinoid-based insecticides (clothianidin and combined clothianidin with deltamethrin) was deployed in two previously unsprayed districts of Côte d'Ivoire in 2020 and 2021 to complement standard pyrethroid insecticide-treated nets. This retrospective observational study uses health facility register data to assess the impact of IRS on clinically reported malaria case incidence. METHODS: Health facility data were abstracted from consultation registers for the period September 2018 to April 2022 in two IRS districts and two control districts that did not receive IRS. Malaria cases reported by community health workers (CHWs) were obtained from district reports and District Health Information Systems 2. Facilities missing complete data were excluded. Controlled interrupted time series models were used to estimate the effect of IRS on monthly all-ages population-adjusted confirmed malaria cases and cases averted by IRS. Models controlled for transmission season, precipitation, vegetation, temperature, proportion of cases reported by CHWs, proportion of tested out of suspected cases and non-malaria outpatient visits. RESULTS: An estimated 10 988 (95% CI 5694 to 18 188) malaria cases were averted in IRS districts the year following the 2020 IRS campaign, representing a 15.9% reduction compared with if IRS had not been deployed. Case incidence in IRS districts dropped by 27.7% (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.723, 95% CI 0.592 to 0.885) the month after the campaign. In the 8 months after the 2021 campaign, 14 170 (95% CI 13 133 to 15 025) estimated cases were averted, a 24.7% reduction, and incidence in IRS districts dropped by 37.9% (IRR 0.621, 95% CI 0.462 to 0.835) immediately after IRS. Case incidence in control districts did not change following IRS either year (p>0.05) and the difference in incidence level change between IRS and control districts was significant both years (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Deployment of clothianidin-based IRS was associated with a reduction in malaria case rates in two districts of Côte d'Ivoire following IRS deployment in 2020 and 2021. |
Organochlorine pesticides and risk of papillary thyroid cancer in U.S. military personnel: a nested case-control study
Rusiecki JA , McAdam J , Denic-Roberts H , Sjodin A , Davis M , Jones R , Hoang TD , Ward MH , Ma S , Zhang Y . Environ Health 2024 23 (1) 28 BACKGROUND: The effects of organochlorine pesticide (OCP) exposure on the development of human papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) are not well understood. A nested case-control study was conducted with data from the U.S. Department of Defense Serum Repository (DoDSR) cohort between 2000 and 2013 to assess associations of individual OCPs serum concentrations with PTC risk. METHODS: This study included 742 histologically confirmed PTC cases (341 females, 401 males) and 742 individually-matched controls with pre-diagnostic serum samples selected from the DoDSR. Associations between categories of lipid-corrected serum concentrations of seven OCPs and PTC risk were evaluated for classical PTC and follicular PTC using conditional logistic regression, adjusted for body mass index category and military branch to compute odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Effect modification by sex, birth cohort, and race was examined. RESULTS: There was no evidence of associations between most of the OCPs and PTC, overall or stratified by histological subtype. Overall, there was no evidence of an association between hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and PTC, but stratified by histological subtype HCB was associated with significantly increased risk of classical PTC (third tertile above the limit of detection (LOD) vs. <LOD, OR = 1.61, 95% CI, 1.09, 2.38; p for trend = 0.05) and significantly decreased risk of follicular variant PTC (third tertile above the limit of detection (LOD) vs. <LOD, OR = 0.38, 95% CI, 0.16, 0.91; p for trend = 0.04). Further stratified by sex, risk of classical PTC was higher for females (third tertile above LOD vs. <LOD, OR = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.23, 4.06; p-trend = 0.02) than for males (OR = 1.22, 95%CI: 0.72-2.08; p-trend = 0.56), though the test for interaction by sex was not statistically significant (p-interaction = 0.30). Similarly, β-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCCH) was associated with a higher risk for classical PTC for women with concentrations ≥LOD versus <LOD (OR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.07, 2.89), while the effects were null for men. There were no consistent trends when stratified by race or birth year. CONCLUSIONS: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has classified HCB and other OCPs we studied here as probable human carcinogens. Our findings of increased risks for classical PTC associated with increased concentrations of HCB and β-HCCH, which were stronger among females, should be replicated in future studies of other populations. |
Post-discharge mortality among patients hospitalised with severe acute respiratory infection, Bangladesh, 2012–2019: a prospective observational study
Islam MA , Hassan MZ , Aleem MA , Akhtar Z , Chowdhury S , Ahmmed MK , Rahman M , Rahman MZ , Mah-E-Muneer S , Uzzaman MS , Shirin T , Flora MS , Rahman M , Davis WW , Azziz-Baumgartner E , Iuliano AD , Chowdhury F . Lancet Reg Heal Southeast Asia 2024 Background: Enhancing outcomes post-hospitalisation requires an understanding of predictive factors for adverse events. This study aimed to estimate post-discharge mortality rates among patients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Bangladesh, identify associated factors, and document reported causes of death. Methods: From January 2012 to December 2019, we conducted follow-up calls to patients or their families 30 days after discharge to assess the status of patients with SARI. Proportions of deaths within 30 days of discharge were estimated, and a comparative analysis of demographics, clinical characteristics, and influenza illness between decedents and survivors was performed using multivariable Cox regression models. Findings: Among 23,360 patients with SARI (median age: 20 years, IQR: 1.5–48, 65% male), 351 (1.5%) died during hospitalisation. Of 23,009 patients alive at discharge, 20,044 (87%) were followed, with 633 (3.2%) deaths within 30 days of discharge. In children (<18 years), difficulty breathing (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.8; 95% CI 1.1–3.0), longer hospital stay (aHR 1.1; 95% CI 1.1–1.1), and heart diseases (aHR 8.5; 95% CI 3.2–23.1) were associated with higher post-discharge death risk. Among adults (≥18 years), difficulty breathing (aHR 2.3; 95% CI 1.7–3.0), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aHR 1.7; 95% CI 1.4–2.2), and intensive care unit admission (aHR 5.2; 95% CI 1.9–14.0) were linked to elevated post-discharge death risk. Influenza virus was detected in 13% (46/351) of in-hospital SARI deaths and 10% (65/633) of post-discharge SARI deaths. Interpretation: Nearly one in twenty patients with SARI died during hospitalisation or within 1 month of discharge, with two-thirds of deaths occurring post-discharge. Seasonal influenza vaccination is recommended to mitigate influenza-associated mortality. To enhance post-discharge outcomes, hospitals should consider developing safe-discharge algorithms, reinforcing post-discharge care plans, and establishing outpatient monitoring for recently discharged patients. Funding: Centers for Disease Control and (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia, USA [U01GH002259]. © 2024 The Author(s) |
Mental health surveillance among children - United States, 2013-2019
Bitsko RH , Claussen AH , Lichstein J , Black LI , Jones SE , Danielson ML , Hoenig JM , Davis Jack SP , Brody DJ , Gyawali S , Maenner MJ , Warner M , Holland KM , Perou R , Crosby AE , Blumberg SJ , Avenevoli S , Kaminski JW , Ghandour RM . MMWR Suppl 2022 71 (2) 1-42 Mental health encompasses a range of mental, emotional, social, and behavioral functioning and occurs along a continuum from good to poor. Previous research has documented that mental health among children and adolescents is associated with immediate and long-term physical health and chronic disease, health risk behaviors, social relationships, education, and employment. Public health surveillance of children's mental health can be used to monitor trends in prevalence across populations, increase knowledge about demographic and geographic differences, and support decision-making about prevention and intervention. Numerous federal data systems collect data on various indicators of children's mental health, particularly mental disorders. The 2013-2019 data from these data systems show that mental disorders begin in early childhood and affect children with a range of sociodemographic characteristics. During this period, the most prevalent disorders diagnosed among U.S. children and adolescents aged 3-17 years were attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and anxiety, each affecting approximately one in 11 (9.4%-9.8%) children. Among children and adolescents aged 12-17 years, one fifth (20.9%) had ever experienced a major depressive episode. Among high school students in 2019, 36.7% reported persistently feeling sad or hopeless in the past year, and 18.8% had seriously considered attempting suicide. Approximately seven in 100,000 persons aged 10-19 years died by suicide in 2018 and 2019. Among children and adolescents aged 3-17 years, 9.6%-10.1% had received mental health services, and 7.8% of all children and adolescents aged 3-17 years had taken medication for mental health problems during the past year, based on parent report. Approximately one in four children and adolescents aged 12-17 years reported having received mental health services during the past year. In federal data systems, data on positive indicators of mental health (e.g., resilience) are limited. Although no comprehensive surveillance system for children's mental health exists and no single indicator can be used to define the mental health of children or to identify the overall number of children with mental disorders, these data confirm that mental disorders among children continue to be a substantial public health concern. These findings can be used by public health professionals, health care providers, state health officials, policymakers, and educators to understand the prevalence of specific mental disorders and other indicators of mental health and the challenges related to mental health surveillance. |
Endocrine disrupting chemical mixture exposure and risk of papillary thyroid cancer in U.S. military personnel: A nested case-control study
Denic-Roberts H , McAdam J , Sjodin A , Davis M , Jones R , Ward MH , Hoang TD , Ma S , Zhang Y , Rusiecki JA . Sci Total Environ 2024 922 171342 Single-pollutant methods to evaluate associations between endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) and thyroid cancer risk may not reflect realistic human exposures. Therefore, we evaluated associations between exposure to a mixture of 18 EDCs, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), brominated flame retardants, and organochlorine pesticides, and risk of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), the most common thyroid cancer histological subtype. We conducted a nested case-control study among U.S. military servicemembers of 652 histologically-confirmed PTC cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2013 and 652 controls, matched on birth year, sex, race/ethnicity, military component (active duty/reserve), and serum sample timing. We estimated mixture odds ratios (OR), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), and standard errors (SE) for associations between pre-diagnostic serum EDC mixture concentrations, overall PTC risk, and risk of histological subtypes of PTC (classical, follicular), adjusted for body mass index and military branch, using quantile g-computation. Additionally, we identified relative contributions of individual mixture components to PTC risk, represented by positive and negative weights (w). A one-quartile increase in the serum mixture concentration was associated with a non-statistically significant increase in overall PTC risk (OR = 1.19; 95% CI = 0.91, 1.56; SE = 0.14). Stratified by histological subtype and race (White, Black), a one-quartile increase in the mixture was associated with increased classical PTC risk among those of White race (OR = 1.59; 95% CI = 1.06, 2.40; SE = 0.21), but not of Black race (OR = 0.95; 95% CI = 0.34, 2.68; SE = 0.53). PCBs 180, 199, and 118 had the greatest positive weights driving this association among those of White race (w = 0.312, 0.255, and 0.119, respectively). Findings suggest that exposure to an EDC mixture may be associated with increased classical PTC risk. These findings warrant further investigation in other study populations to better understand PTC risk by histological subtype and race. |
Health worker mental health: Addressing the current crisis and building a sustainable future
Cunningham TR , Chosewood LC , Davis JG , Rochel de Camargo K . Am J Public Health 2024 114 132-133 |
Evaluation of contingency actions to control the spread of raccoon rabies in Ohio and Virginia
Davis AJ , Chipman RB , Nelson KM , Haley BS , Kirby JD , Ma X , Wallace RM , Gilbert AT . Prev Vet Med 2024 225 106145 The raccoon (Procyon lotor) variant of the rabies virus (RRV) is enzootic in the eastern United States and oral rabies vaccination (ORV) is the primary strategy to prevent and control landscape spread. Breaches of ORV management zones occasionally occur, and emergency "contingency" actions may be implemented to enhance local control. Contingency actions are an integral part of landscape-scale wildlife rabies management but can be very costly and routinely involve enhanced rabies surveillance (ERS) around the index case. We investigated two contingency actions in Ohio (2017-2019 and 2018-2021) and one in Virginia (2017-2019) using a dynamic, multi-method occupancy approach to examine relationships between specific management actions and RRV occurrence, including whether ERS was sufficient around the index case. The RRV occupancy was assessed seasonally at 100-km(2) grids and we examined relationships across three spatial scales (regional management zone, RRV free regions, and local contingency areas). The location of a grid relative to the ORV management zone was the strongest predictor of RRV occupancy at the regional scale. In RRV free regions, the neighbor effect and temporal variability were most important in influencing RRV occupancy. Parenteral (hand) vaccination of raccoons was important across all three contingency action areas, but more influential in the Ohio contingency action areas where more raccoons were hand vaccinated. In the Virginia contingency action area, ORV strategies were as important in reducing RRV occupancy as a hand vaccination strategy. The management action to trap, euthanize, and test (TET) raccoons was an important method to increase ERS, yet the impacts of TET on RRV occupancy are not clear. The probability of detecting additional cases of RRV was exceptionally high (>0.95) during the season the index case occurred. The probability of detecting RRV through ERS declined in the seasons following initial TET efforts but remained higher after the contingency action compared to the ERS detection probabilities prior to index case incidence. Local RRV cases were contained within one year and eliminated within 2-3 years of each contingency action. |
Correction for Weigand et al., Complete Genome Sequences of Two Bordetella hinzii Strains Isolated from Humans.
Weigand MR , Changayil S , Kulasekarapandian Y , Batra D , Loparev V , Juieng P , Rowe L , Sheth M , Davis JK , Tondella ML . Genome Announc 2016 4 (1) Volume 3, no. 4, e00965-15, 2015. Page 1: The byline and affiliation line should read as given above. |
Of Those We Have Lost and Those Who Have Saved So Many Others
Chorba T . Emerg Infect Dis 2022 28 (7) 1537-9 Modernism is a term ascribed to styles and transformative movements in multiple cultural spheres—philosophy, music, art, architecture, and literature. In its essence, modernism has at its core experimentation, as a term usually applied to efforts and creations of the late 19th or early 20th century, but sometimes later, characterized by intentional departures from traditional forms. | | There are many well-known examples of modernist efforts in their respective spheres and periods. In biology, Charles Darwin questioned the concept of human uniqueness with the theory of evolution. In literature, the term modernist has been applied to European and American writers who created substantive departures from tradition, as was seen in the works of Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Gustave Flaubert, James Joyce, and William Carlos Williams. In music, modernism is a term ascribed to the period 1890–1930, and postmodernism is a term sometimes accorded to phenomena with modernist qualities but occurring after 1930; however, some critics use modernism to describe a movement of rebellion that continues, dependent on the musician’s attitude rather than the musician’s moment in time. Certainly, Ella Fitzgerald, Miles Davis, Bob Dylan, John Lennon, Charles Mingus, the Rolling Stones, and Neil Young created musical forms that featured modernist iconoclasm, stepping well beyond the early 20th century. In art, modernism is used as a broader categorization of several novel stylistic departures including realism, postimpressionism, fauvism, cubism, dadaism, surrealism, abstract expressionism, and minimalism, each with elements of deliberate experimentation and innovation. |
Differential interferon responses to influenza A and B viruses in primary ferret respiratory epithelial cells
Rowe T , Davis W , Wentworth DE , Ross T . J Virol 2024 e0149423 Influenza B viruses (IBV) cocirculate with influenza A viruses (IAV) and cause periodic epidemics of disease, yet antibody and cellular responses following IBV infection are less well understood. Using the ferret model for antisera generation for influenza surveillance purposes, IAV resulted in robust antibody responses following infection, whereas IBV required an additional booster dose, over 85% of the time, to generate equivalent antibody titers. In this study, we utilized primary differentiated ferret nasal epithelial cells (FNECs) which were inoculated with IAV and IBV to study differences in innate immune responses which may result in differences in adaptive immune responses in the host. FNECs were inoculated with IAV (H1N1pdm09 and H3N2 subtypes) or IBV (B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineages) and assessed for 72 h. Cells were analyzed for gene expression by quantitative real-time PCR, and apical and basolateral supernatants were assessed for virus kinetics and interferon (IFN), respectively. Similar virus kinetics were observed with IAV and IBV in FNECs. A comparison of gene expression and protein secretion profiles demonstrated that IBV-inoculated FNEC expressed delayed type-I/II IFN responses and reduced type-III IFN secretion compared to IAV-inoculated cells. Concurrently, gene expression of Thymic Stromal Lymphopoietin (TSLP), a type-III IFN-induced gene that enhances adaptive immune responses, was significantly downregulated in IBV-inoculated FNECs. Significant differences in other proinflammatory and adaptive genes were suppressed and delayed following IBV inoculation. Following IBV infection, ex vivo cell cultures derived from the ferret upper respiratory tract exhibited reduced and delayed innate responses which may contribute to reduced antibody responses in vivo.IMPORTANCEInfluenza B viruses (IBV) represent nearly one-quarter of all human influenza cases and are responsible for significant clinical and socioeconomic impacts but do not pose the same pandemic risks as influenza A viruses (IAV) and have thus received much less attention. IBV accounts for greater severity and deaths in children, and vaccine efficacy remains low. The ferret can be readily infected with human clinical isolates and demonstrates a similar course of disease and immune responses. IBV, however, generates lower antibodies in ferrets than IAV following the challenge. To determine whether differences in initial innate responses following infection may affect the development of robust adaptive immune responses, ferret respiratory tract cells were isolated, infected with IAV/IBV, and compared. Understanding the differences in the initial innate immune responses to IAV and IBV may be important in the development of more effective vaccines and interventions to generate more robust protective immune responses. |
Systematic review of tularemia during pregnancy
Fleck-Derderian S , Davis KM , Winberg J , Nelson CA , Meaney-Delman D . Clin Infect Dis 2024 78 S47-s54 BACKGROUND: Tularemia is caused by the gram-negative bacterium Francisella tularensis. Although rare, tularemia during pregnancy has been associated with pregnancy complications; data on efficacy of recommended antimicrobials for treatment are limited. We performed a systematic literature review to characterize clinical manifestations of tularemia during pregnancy and examine maternal, fetal, and neonatal outcomes with and without antimicrobial treatment. METHODS: We searched 9 databases, including Medline, Embase, Global Health, and PubMed Central, using terms related to tularemia and pregnancy. Articles reporting cases of tularemia with ≥1 maternal or fetal outcome were included. RESULTS: Of 5891 articles identified, 30 articles describing 52 cases of tularemia in pregnant patients met inclusion criteria. Cases were reported from 9 countries, and oropharyngeal and ulceroglandular tularemia were the most common presenting forms. A plurality (46%) of infections occurred in the second trimester. Six complications were observed: lymph node aspiration, lymph node excision, maternal bleeding, spontaneous abortion, intrauterine fetal demise, and preterm birth. No deaths among mothers were reported. Of 28 patients who received antimicrobial treatment, 1 pregnancy loss and 1 fetal death were reported. Among 24 untreated patients, 1 pregnancy loss and 3 fetal deaths were reported, including one where F. tularensis was detected in placental and fetal tissues. CONCLUSIONS: Pregnancy loss and other complications have been reported among cases of tularemia during pregnancy. However, risk of adverse outcomes may be lower when antimicrobials known to be effective are used. Without treatment, transplacental transmission appears possible. These data underscore the importance of prompt recognition and treatment of tularemia during pregnancy. |
Systematic review: Clinical features, antimicrobial treatment, and outcomes of human tularemia, 1993-2023
Nelson CA , Winberg J , Bostic TD , Davis KM , Fleck-Derderian S . Clin Infect Dis 2024 78 S15-s28 BACKGROUND: Francisella tularensis, the causative agent of tularemia, is endemic throughout the Northern Hemisphere and requires as few as 10 organisms to cause disease, making this potential bioterrorism agent one of the most infectious bacterial pathogens known. Aminoglycosides, tetracyclines, and, more recently, fluoroquinolones are used for treatment of tularemia; however, data on the relative effectiveness of these and other antimicrobial classes are limited. METHODS: Nine databases, including Medline, Global Health, and Embase, were systematically searched for articles containing terms related to tularemia. Articles with case-level data on tularemia diagnosis, antimicrobial treatment, and patient outcome were included. Patient demographics, clinical findings, antimicrobial administration, and outcome (eg, intubation, fatality) were abstracted using a standardized form. RESULTS: Of the 8878 publications identified and screened, 410 articles describing 870 cases from 1993 to 2023 met inclusion criteria. Cases were reported from 35 countries; more than half were from the United States, Turkey, or Spain. The most common clinical forms were ulceroglandular, oropharyngeal, glandular, and pneumonic disease. Among patients treated with aminoglycosides (n = 452 [52%]), fluoroquinolones (n = 339 [39%]), or tetracyclines (n = 419 [48%]), the fatality rate was 0.7%, 0.9%, and 1.2%, respectively. Patients with pneumonic disease who received ciprofloxacin had no fatalities and the lowest rates of thoracentesis/pleural effusion drainage and intubation compared to those who received aminoglycosides and tetracyclines. CONCLUSIONS: Aminoglycosides, fluoroquinolones, and tetracyclines are effective antimicrobials for treatment of tularemia, regardless of clinical manifestation. For pneumonic disease specifically, ciprofloxacin may have slight advantages compared to other antimicrobials. |
Factors associated with having both male and female recent sexual partnerships among men who have sex with men in Harare and Bulawayo, Zimbabwe
Davis M , Musuka G , Mapingure MP , Hakim A , Parmley LE , Mugurungi O , Chingombe I , Miller SS , Rogers JH , Lamb MR , Samba C , Harris TG . AIDS Behav 2024 To better understand male and female sexual partnerships among men who have sex with men (MSM), we used data from a 2019 biobehavioral survey among MSM in Harare and Bulawayo, Zimbabwe to conduct bivariate analyses and multivariable logistic regression to determine whether sociodemographic characteristics and HIV-related factors were associated with having both male and female sexual partnerships within the last 6 months. Of included MSM (N = 1143), 31% reported both male and female partnerships in the last 6 months. Being married/cohabiting (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 8.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.92-14.95) or separated/divorced/widowed (aOR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.24-3.08) vs. being single, and hazardous alcohol consumption (aOR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.19-2.09) were associated with higher odds of having both male and female recent partnerships. Being aged 35 + vs. 18-24 (aOR = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.31-0.81), condomless receptive anal intercourse at last sex with the main male partner (aOR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.26-0.74), and positive HIV status (aOR = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.31-0.67) were associated with lower odds of recent male and female partnerships. MSM in Harare who reported harassment/abuse (aOR = 3.16, 95% CI = 1.72-5.79) had higher odds of both male and female partnerships than MSM in Bulawayo reporting harassment/abuse. The prevalence of both male and female recent partnerships (31%) was lower among MSM in this survey than in other biobehavioral surveys of MSM in sub-Saharan Africa. Findings suggest that MSM with recent male and female partnerships compared to MSM with only male recent partners have lower odds of positive HIV status and participate in behaviors that lower HIV risk; however, the direction of these relationships cannot be determined due to the cross-sectional nature of the data. The findings also suggest a possible connection between experiences of stigma of MSM behavior and not having both male and female partnerships that warrants further exploration. Accessible, stigma-free HIV testing and education programming that considers the potential overlap between the MSM and general populations via both male and female partnerships and the associated behaviors could be a key component of HIV elimination in Zimbabwe. |
Quantified impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions on influenza circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic in 13 African countries, 2020-2022
Gharpure R , Olsen SJ , Davis WW . Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2024 18 (1) e13241 Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for SARS-CoV-2 disrupted circulation of influenza. We used data from 13 African countries and generalized linear models to identify associations between levels of NPIs, using the Oxford Stringency Index, and seasonal influenza activity, using parameters derived from 2020-2022 seasonal influenza surveillance. We found that for each step increase in school closings, the average percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for influenza across the influenza season dropped by 20% (95% CI: 1-38%); no other NPI was significant. These findings may inform interventions to slow influenza circulation in pandemics and possibly during seasonal epidemics. |
The role of asymptomatic infections in influenza transmission: what do we really know
Montgomery MP , Morris SE , Rolfes MA , Kittikraisak W , Samuels AM , Biggerstaff M , Davis WW , Reed C , Olsen SJ . Lancet Infect Dis 2023 Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the role of asymptomatic influenza virus infections in influenza transmission was uncertain. However, the importance of asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 for onward transmission of COVID-19 has led experts to question whether the role of asymptomatic influenza virus infections in transmission had been underappreciated. We discuss the existing evidence on the frequency of asymptomatic influenza virus infections, the extent to which they contribute to infection transmission, and remaining knowledge gaps. We propose priority areas for further evaluation, study designs, and case definitions to address existing knowledge gaps. |
Avian influenza A(H5) virus circulation in live bird markets in Vietnam, 2017-2022
Nguyen DT , Sumner KM , Nguyen TTM , Phan MQ , Hoang TM , Vo CD , Nguyen TD , Nguyen PT , Yang G , Jang Y , Jones J , Olsen SJ , Gould PL , Nguyen LV , Davis CT . Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2023 17 (12) e13245 BACKGROUND: Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5) human infections are a global concern, with many A(H5) human cases detected in Vietnam, including a case in October 2022. Using avian influenza virus surveillance from March 2017-September 2022, we described the percent of pooled samples that were positive for avian influenza A, A(H5), A(H5N1), A(H5N6), and A(H5N8) viruses in live bird markets (LBMs) in Vietnam. METHODS: Monthly at each LBM, 30 poultry oropharyngeal swab specimens and five environmental samples were collected. Samples were pooled in groups of five and tested for influenza A, A(H5), A(H5N1), A(H5N6), and A(H5N8) viruses by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. Trends in the percent of pooled samples that were positive for avian influenza were summarized by LBM characteristics and time and compared with the number of passively detected avian influenza outbreaks using Spearman's rank correlation. RESULTS: A total of 25,774 pooled samples were collected through active surveillance at 167 LBMs in 24 provinces; 36.9% of pooled samples were positive for influenza A, 3.6% A(H5), 1.9% A(H5N1), 1.1% A(H5N6), and 0.2% A(H5N8). Influenza A(H5) viruses were identified January-December and at least once in 91.7% of sampled provinces. In 246 A(H5) outbreaks in poultry; 20.3% were influenza A(H5N1), 60.2% A(H5N6), and 19.5% A(H5N8); outbreaks did not correlate with active surveillance. CONCLUSIONS: In Vietnam, influenza A(H5) viruses were detected by active surveillance in LBMs year-round and in most provinces sampled. In addition to outbreak reporting, active surveillance for A(H5) viruses in settings with high potential for animal-to-human spillover can provide situational awareness. |
US county-level variation in preterm birth rates, 2007-2019
Khan SS , Vaughan AS , Harrington K , Seegmiller L , Huang X , Pool LR , Davis MM , Allen NB , Capewell S , O'Flaherty M , Miller GE , Mehran R , Vogel B , Kershaw KN , Lloyd-Jones DM , Grobman WA . JAMA Netw Open 2023 6 (12) e2346864 IMPORTANCE: Preterm birth is a leading cause of preventable neonatal morbidity and mortality. Preterm birth rates at the national level may mask important geographic variation in rates and trends at the county level. OBJECTIVE: To estimate age-standardized preterm birth rates by US county from 2007 to 2019. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This serial cross-sectional study used data from the National Center for Health Statistics composed of all live births in the US between 2007 and 2019. Data analyses were performed between March 22, 2022, and September 29, 2022. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Age-standardized preterm birth (<37 weeks' gestation) and secondarily early preterm birth (<34 weeks' gestation) rates by county and year calculated with a validated small area estimation model (hierarchical bayesian spatiotemporal model) and percent change in preterm birth rates using log-linear regression models. RESULTS: Between 2007 and 2019, there were 51 044 482 live births in 2383 counties. In 2007, the national age-standardized preterm birth rate was 12.6 (95% CI, 12.6-12.7) per 100 live births. Preterm birth rates varied significantly among counties, with an absolute difference between the 90th and 10th percentile counties of 6.4 (95% CI, 6.2-6.7). The gap between the highest and lowest counties for preterm births was 20.7 per 100 live births in 2007. Several counties in the Southeast consistently had the highest preterm birth rates compared with counties in California and New England, which had the lowest preterm birth rates. Although there was no statistically significant change in preterm birth rates between 2007 and 2019 at the national level (percent change, -5.0%; 95% CI, -10.7% to 0.9%), increases occurred in 15.4% (95% CI, 14.1%-16.9%) of counties. The absolute and relative geographic inequalities were similar across all maternal age groups. Higher quartile of the Social Vulnerability Index was associated with higher preterm birth rates (quartile 4 vs quartile 1 risk ratio, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.31-1.36), which persisted across the study period. Similar patterns were observed for early preterm birth rates. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this serial cross-sectional study of county-level preterm and early preterm birth rates, substantial geographic disparities were observed, which were associated with place-based social disadvantage. Stability in aggregated rates of preterm birth at the national level masked increases in nearly 1 in 6 counties between 2007 and 2019. |
A novel invasive Streptococcus pyogenes variant sublineage derived through recombinational replacement of the emm12 genomic region
Unoarumhi Y , Davis ML , Rowe LA , Mathis S , Li Z , Chochua S , Li Y , McGee L , Metcalf BJ , Lee JS , Beall B . Sci Rep 2023 13 (1) 21510 Group A streptococcal strains potentially acquire new M protein gene types through genetic recombination (emm switching). To detect such variants, we screened 12,596 invasive GAS genomes for strains of differing emm types that shared the same multilocus sequence type (ST). Through this screening we detected a variant consisting of 16 serum opacity factor (SOF)-positive, emm pattern E, emm82 isolates that were ST36, previously only associated with SOF-negative, emm pattern A, emm12. The 16 emm82/ST36 isolates were closely interrelated (pairwise SNP distance of 0-43), and shared the same emm82-containing recombinational fragment. emm82/ST36 isolates carried the sof12 structural gene, however the sof12 indel characteristic of emm12 strains was corrected to confer the SOF-positive phenotype. Five independent emm82/ST36 invasive case isolates comprised two sets of genetically indistinguishable strains. The emm82/ST36 isolates were primarily macrolide resistant (12/16 isolates), displayed at least 4 different core genomic arrangements, and carried 11 different combinations of virulence and resistance determinants. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that emm82/ST36 was within a minor (non-clade 1) portion of ST36 that featured almost all ST36 antibiotic resistance. This work documents emergence of a rapidly diversifying variant that is the first confirmed example of an emm pattern A strain switched to a pattern E strain. |
Safety and immunogenicity of locally produced trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (Tri Fluvac) in healthy Thai adults aged 18-64 years in Nakhon Phanom: A Phase III double blinded, three-arm, randomized, controlled trial
Prasert K , Praphasiri P , Lerdsamran H , Nakphook S , Ditsungnoen D , Chawalchitiporn S , Sornwong K , Poopipatpol K , Wirachwong P , Narakorn P , Surichan S , Suthepakul N , Thangsupanimitchai N , Pittayawonganon C , Puthavathana P , Davis WW , Mott JA , Olsen SJ , Patumanond J . Vaccine 2023 42 (1) 24-32 BACKGROUND: Domestic influenza vaccine production facilitates a sustainable supply for mitigating seasonal influenza and improves national health security by providing infrastructure and experience for pandemic vaccine production, if needed. METHODS: A Phase III, double blind, randomized controlled trial was conducted from Sep 2019-Oct 2020 in healthy adults 18-64 years in Nakhon Phanom, Thailand. Randomization (3:3:1) compared study vaccine (Tri Fluvac), saline placebo, and an active comparator (licensed vaccine). Primary outcomes were superior efficacy compared to placebo based on RT-PCR-confirmed influenza virus infection within 12 months and non-inferiority compared to active comparator based on immunogenicity (HAI assay) at 28 days. Safety was also assessed. RESULTS: The trial enrolled 4,284 participants (Tri Fluvac = 1,836; placebo = 1,836; active comparator = 612). There were 29 RT-PCR positive influenza infections (10 Tri Fluvac, 5.5/1,000 PY; 19 placebo, 10.4/1,000PY; 0 comparator) for an absolute protective efficacy of 46.4 (95 % CI = -22.0-76.5) compared with placebo, but the power was 43.7 %. Seroconversion difference rates between Tri Fluvac and comparator at Day 28 were 1.74 (95 % CI: -2.77, 6.25), 2.22 (-2.40, 6.84), and -0.57 (-5.41, 4.27) for A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B strains, respectively. Adverse and severe adverse events occurred in 175 (9.5 %) Tri Fluvac, 177 (10.8 %) placebo, and 66 (10.8 %) comparator arms (p-value = 0.437, Tri Fluvac vs. comparator) CONCLUSIONS: Tri Fluvac was well tolerated, and immunogenicity was non-inferior to the active comparator, meeting U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) criteria for adult vaccine licensure. Few acute respiratory infections were reported during intense COVID-19 pandemic restrictions, resulting in insufficient power to evaluate clinical efficacy. |
Advancing chronic disease practice through the CDC Data Modernization Initiative
Carney TJ , Wiltz JL , Davis K , Briss PA , Hacker K . Prev Chronic Dis 2023 20 E110 Chronic disease affects 6 in 10 adults in the US, while 4 in 10 adults live with multiple chronic diseases (1). Chronic diseases represent one of the nation’s leading causes of disability and drivers of the nation’s $4.1 trillion in annual health care spending (1). Chronic conditions including heart disease, cancer, stroke, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease dominate the leading causes of death. Furthermore, leading lifestyle risk factors in the US include tobacco use, poor nutrition, physical inactivity, and excessive alcohol use (1). | | Chronic disease prevention and control necessitates a comprehensive strategy to prevent disease (2–4), which is needed now more than ever (5). Information systems innovations are needed to advance health activities and outcomes and to allow decision makers and practitioners to act (4,6–8). Chronic disease data are a foundation that can inform interventions to promote healthy communities, support healthy behaviors and lifestyles, and facilitate effective and coordinated chronic disease prevention and health promotion (5,9). The benefits of an improved chronic disease data landscape include improved management of chronic disease programs, enhanced communication, data exchange, and coordination between federal, state, tribal, local, and territorial health departments and their partners. Additionally, efforts aimed at enhancing chronic disease surveillance practices will better enable a learning health system, precision public health, and improved situational awareness that will ultimately allow people across the US to live longer, healthier lives (10–12). |
Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty
Howerton E , Contamin L , Mullany LC , Qin M , Reich NG , Bents S , Borchering RK , Jung SM , Loo SL , Smith CP , Levander J , Kerr J , Espino J , van Panhuis WG , Hochheiser H , Galanti M , Yamana T , Pei S , Shaman J , Rainwater-Lovett K , Kinsey M , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Shin L , Lemaitre JC , Kaminsky J , Hulse JD , Lee EC , McKee CD , Hill A , Karlen D , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Xiong X , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Rosenstrom ET , Ivy JS , Mayorga ME , Swann JL , España G , Cavany S , Moore S , Perkins A , Hladish T , Pillai A , Ben Toh K , Longini I Jr , Chen S , Paul R , Janies D , Thill JC , Bouchnita A , Bi K , Lachmann M , Fox SJ , Meyers LA , Srivastava A , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Adiga A , Lewis B , Klahn B , Outten J , Hurt B , Chen J , Mortveit H , Wilson A , Marathe M , Hoops S , Bhattacharya P , Machi D , Cadwell BL , Healy JM , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Truelove S , Runge MC , Shea K , Viboud C , Lessler J . Nat Commun 2023 14 (1) 7260 Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections. |
Strengthening influenza surveillance capacity in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: Nearly two decades of direct support from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Zureick K , McCarron M , Dawson P , Davis JK , Barnes J , Wentworth D , Azziz-Baumgartner E . Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2023 17 (11) e13220 Since 2004, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Influenza Division (ID) has supported seven countries in the Eastern Mediterranean region and the World Health Organization Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean to establish and strengthen influenza surveillance. The substantial growth of influenza surveillance capacities in the region demonstrates a commitment by governments to strengthen national programs and contribute to global surveillance. The full value of surveillance data is in its use to guide local public health decisions. CDC ID remains committed to supporting the region and supporting partners to translate surveillance data into policies and programs effectively. |
Lessons learned from identifying clusters of severe acute respiratory infections with influenza sentinel surveillance, Bangladesh, 2009-2020
Islam MA , Hassan MZ , Aleem MA , Akhtar Z , Chowdhury S , Rahman M , Rahman MZ , Ahmmed MK , Mah EMuneer S , Alamgir ASM , Anwar SNR , Alam AN , Shirin T , Rahman M , Davis WW , Mott JA , Azziz-Baumgartner E , Chowdhury F . Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2023 17 (9) e13201 BACKGROUND: We explored whether hospital-based surveillance is useful in detecting severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) clusters and how often these events result in outbreak investigation and community mitigation. METHODS: During May 2009-December 2020, physicians at 14 sentinel hospitals prospectively identified SARI clusters (i.e., ≥2 SARI cases who developed symptoms ≤10 days of each other and lived <30 min walk or <3 km from each other). Oropharyngeal and nasopharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza and other respiratory viruses by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). We describe the demographic of persons within clusters, laboratory results, and outbreak investigations. RESULTS: Field staff identified 464 clusters comprising 1427 SARI cases (range 0-13 clusters per month). Sixty percent of clusters had three, 23% had two, and 17% had ≥4 cases. Their median age was 2 years (inter-quartile range [IQR] 0.4-25) and 63% were male. Laboratory results were available for the 464 clusters with a median of 9 days (IQR = 6-13 days) after cluster identification. Less than one in five clusters had cases that tested positive for the same virus: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in 58 (13%), influenza viruses in 24 (5%), human metapneumovirus (HMPV) in five (1%), human parainfluenza virus (HPIV) in three (0.6%), adenovirus in two (0.4%). While 102/464 (22%) had poultry exposure, none tested positive for influenza A (H5N1) or A (H7N9). None of the 464 clusters led to field deployments for outbreak response. CONCLUSIONS: For 11 years, none of the hundreds of identified clusters led to an emergency response. The value of this event-based surveillance might be improved by seeking larger clusters, with stronger epidemiologic ties or decedents. |
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